How it Works
by Russell Sands
We make money only on trends, either up or
down.
The Turtle rules allow us easily to spot trends early enough to get on board.
By the time everyone else has woken up, they are often too late.
We often get it wrong (note, not sometimes but often).
In fact, we get it wrong far more often than we get it right.
Looking back through my records, my own trades have been wrong on about
75% of occasions and right on just 25%. And here’s the kicker – each time we
get it wrong, we lose money!
Supposing you are betting on the roll of a 4-sided pyramid-shaped dice with
faces numbered
1, 2, 3 and 4. Let’s also assume that 75% of the time your bet will be wrong
and only 25%
of the time it will be right.
That is, of course, exactly what you would expect from a 4-sided dice.
Now I want to add a further rule.
Each time you are wrong, it costs you $100. Each time you are right, you are
paid $1,000.
Are you happy to play this game? You bet! I would play this game 24/7 if the
fools would let me
– and I hope you would too!
This is truly a ‘no lose’ game. The longer you play, the richer you get.
But hold on. We just said you lose three rolls out of four! Also, supposing
you had a really
bad losing streak and 12 throws in a row you got it wrong and your number
didn’t come up?
This could easily happen. Ouch! That’s $1200 up in smoke! Would you throw up
your hands
in disgust and leave the table muttering that it was a mug’s game?
I sincerely hope not! You would, I hope, snap your fingers at such losses and
reach
for the dice again. You know with 100% (not even 99.9999%) certainty that if
you stay
at the table long enough you will clean up big time.
Personally, I would be begging them to let me bet $1,000 a throw and get
$10,000
each time I won!
The rules
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